Which Forecasting Technique is “Best”?

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    NB. Please read the text in italics carefully; they are advisory notes.

    NB. This assignment is based upon the Data Sets presented in Appendix A; please examine this data very carefully, BEFORE attempting to answer the assignment questions.

    NB. Make sure that you answer BOTH PARTS of this Assignment; which tests Learning Outcomes a), c) & d) for the IT Applications Module.

    Requirements
    Part 1 Create a spreadsheet; which applies a range of forecasting techniques, to the 3 x Data Sets presented in Appendix A. (40 Marks)
    NB. These forecasts MIGHT include techniques such as; Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing & Linear Trend, however;
    NOT ALL of the data sets are suitable for you to apply ALL of the forecasting techniques listed above.
    DO NOT, however, feel limited by the above list of forecasting techniques, as;
    your discussion (see below) may well be enhanced by the ability of your spreadsheet to apply other forecasting techniques.
    Part 2 Write a report; which discusses/explains which forecasting techniques is ‘best’. (60 Marks)
    NB. This report;
    a) MUST be illustrated by the results of your forecasts of the Data presented in Appendix A (i.e. from Part 1, above).
    AND
    b) MUST make reference to the relevant literature; i.e. where BOTH the forecasting techniques you have applied, and other forecasting techniques, are explained/discussed.

    Requirements
    Part 1    Create a spreadsheet; which applies a range of forecasting techniques, to the 3 x Data Sets presented in Appendix A. (40 Marks)
    NB.    These forecasts MIGHT include techniques such as; Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing & Linear Trend, however;
    NOT ALL of the data sets are suitable for you to apply ALL of the forecasting techniques listed above.
    DO NOT, however, feel limited by the above list of forecasting techniques, as;
    your discussion (see below) may well be enhanced by the ability of your spreadsheet to apply other forecasting techniques.
    Part 2    Write a report; which discusses/explains which forecasting techniques is ‘best’. (60 Marks)
    NB.    This report;
    a)        MUST be illustrated by the results of your forecasts of the Data presented in Appendix A (i.e. from Part 1, above).
    AND
    b)    MUST make reference to the relevant literature; i.e. where BOTH the forecasting techniques you have applied, and other forecasting techniques, are explained/discussed.
    What you need to hand-in?
    1.    An Excel spreadsheet, containing ALL of your forecasts of the Data presented in Appendix A (i.e. your answer to Part 1), saved with your Student ID as the file name (e.g. 201199999.xlsx).
    2.    A Word document, once again saved with your Student ID as the file name (e.g. 201199999.docx), which attempts to answer the question ‘Which Forecasting Technique is “Best”?’ (i.e. your answer to Part 2).

    Appendix A – Data Sets
    i.e. for you to Forecast using Excel.

    NB.    The data presented below has been carefully chosen, in order that the ‘best’ forecasting technique is NOT always the same.

    Product A

    Month    Sales        Notes/Questions?
    Jan    123        The data presented to the left;
    are the Monthly Sales, of a single product (Product A), over a 12 Month period.
    Which forecasting techniques can be applied to this data set?
    Which of these techniques produces the ‘best’ forecast, i.e.;
    •        which would you have the most confidence in, when predicting the Sales for the next Month?
    Feb    110
    Mar    92
    Apr    98
    May    115
    Jun    155
    Jul    184
    Aug    198
    Sep    207
    Oct    185
    Nov    177
    Dec    192

    Product B

    Week    Sales        Notes/Questions?
    1    2        The data presented to the left;
    are the Weekly Sales, of a single product (Product B), over a 15 Week period.
    Which forecasting techniques can be applied to this data set?
    Which of these techniques produces the ‘best’ forecast, i.e.;
    •        which would you have the most confidence in, when predicting the Sales for the next Week?
    Can you think of any other, simple way of predicting the sales of this product for week 16?
    2    4
    3    11
    4    22
    5    38
    6    55
    7    52
    8    50
    9    55
    10    50
    11    48
    12    49
    13    46
    14    32
    15    16

    Age vs. Shoe Size

    Age    Size    Age    Size        Notes/Questions?
    13    5    16    8        The data to the left was gathered from 50 teenagers.
    Questions that require ‘answers’, include;
    •    What is the Average Shoe Size for each Age?
    •    Is there any correlation between Age & Shoe Size?
    •    How confident would you be in using this data in order to predict the Shoe size for someone who is;
    o    12 Years Old
    o    19 Years Old
    •    If I were to reveal to you that this data set was collected 5 Years ago, then how confident would you be?
    13    4.5    16    9
    13    6    16    7.5
    13    4.5    16    8
    13    5    16    8
    13    4.5    17    6
    13    6    17    8.5
    13    7    17    8
    14    5    17    9
    14    6    17    11
    14    5.5    17    8.5
    14    7    17    9
    14    5    17    10
    14    6    18    8
    14    5.5    18    9
    14    6    18    10
    15    6    18    11
    15    7    18    9.5
    15    6.5    18    12
    15    7    18    10.5
    15    8    18    11
    15    7    18    11.5
    16    6.5    18    12
    16    7    18    10
    16    7    18    11
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