Dependent Variable (Effect): following from and/or related to the research question, you will be trying to explain an effect or a phenomenon throughout the paper (e.g. the rise of Islamism in the Middle East, the persistence of military dominance of politics in Egypt, the rise of sectarian conflict in Iraq, factionalism in Iranian politics, etc…)

Independent Variable(s) (Cause or Causes): following from the effect, you will need to write about some of its causes (e.g. economic inequality/corruption → rise of Islamism; regional power intervention → sectarian conflict in Iraq; ideological affinity → factionalism in Iran; relative regional underdevelopment → conflict in Algeria, etc…)

The argument: your argument will be how the dependent variable (the effect) relates to the independent ones (the causes).

Structure: -Clear thesis statement with outline of the paper’s argument
Body paragraphs with supporting evidence and
coherent conclusion

Sources:
I. Bickerton &C.Klausner, A Concise History of the Arab-Israeli Conflict (PrenticeHall, 5th edition,2007)
B Milton-Edwards & P Hinchcliffe, Conflicts in the Middle East since 1945 (London: Routledge, 2001)
D Long & B Reich (eds.), The Government and Politics of the Middle East (Boulder: Westview, 4thd edition, 2002).

Middle East Journal (the main US quarterly on Middle East studies, including a good chronology of events).