Macroeconomics Country Outlook

    All students must pick a different country and must have the country approved by the professor. This is a major paper andshould be a minimum of 1500 words. 

    Paper #2 is worth 15% of your overall course mark.

    Forecasting the future is one of the most important things that economists are asked to do. Governments have a few macroeconomic tools that they can use to indicate how a country’s economy is doing. An important part of all macroeconomic courses is to develop an understanding of what these economic indicators are, as well as how they are created so that we can extrapolate into the future. In this paper, you are asked to use your newly acquired macroeconomic knowledge to predict the future

    It is expected that the paper will be free of grammatical errors. 

    This paper will be submitted through Turnitin to review for plagiarism. 

    Specifically, you are to forecast the following key macro-economic variables in your country of choice for five years starting with 2019 through 2023 using this simple chart:

    Variable/Year

    2019

    2020

    2021

    2022

    2023

    5-year average

    USD$ Real GDP/Capita

    Growth rate of Real GDP/Capita

    Inflation Rate

    Unemployment Rate

    Interest Rate

    1. Real GDP/Capita in USD$

    2. The growth rate of Real GDP per Capita (% change per year)

    3.    The inflation rate (%)

    4. The unemployment rate (%) and

    5. Interest rates 

    Include the following sections in your paper. 

    1) Introduction

    Explaining what you are going to write about.

    2) Background and History

    What are the important key historic factors? For example, did the country recently receive independence or become a member of the World Trade Organization or something else? What is the current economy like? Is it going through some sort of economic crisis or recession? 

    3) Definitions

    Define each variable (Five listed above) and explain how they are determined. 

    Explain why each variable is an important economic indicator and why these numbers are important to you or topeople in that country. In other words, what will the real impact of these forecasts going to be on the people?

    4) Five Year Average Predictions/Calculations

    For the calculation and actual numbers of your predictions, the basic approach will be to calculate a five-year average for each of the five forecast variables.

    5) Explanation of Predictions/Forecast

    The most important part of the paper is your explanation. 

    Use your own words. 

    Carefully and completely explain why you believe that your forecast is true. 

    Convince the reader that your numbers are based on solid predictions and explain why. You may wish to sight historical information. 

    You are free to consult published forecasts and use them as a basis for your prediction. 

    6) Conclusion 

    The conclusion is a summary that not only reiterates the main points of the paper, but draws the paper together, like a thread sewing the pieces of a quilt together. A strong conclusion that has been backed up in the main body of the paper will result in a winning paper.

    7) References 

    References must be current and from multiple sources and from mixed media.

    Be sure to use APA and reference any quotations or web material that you use in your paper. The various chartered banks and investment dealers also prepare macroeconomic forecasts which may be useful as a source of ideas.

     
     
     

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