Impact of Brexit on UK economy

    I will attach a file with some of my thoughts on the road from brexit. I will also attach a link below that might help
    LINK: https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/

    INFO:The road from Brexit:
    -David cameron is the biggest casualty of Britain. He shoved in his exit more dignity than in his 10 years in office.
    -Conservatives Background:
    Conservatives and their PM Margaret Thatcher were in the process of reconciliation.
    They always learn after loss. i.e. Clone Wars , 30’s and 40’s appeared by dictators where Churchill succeeded Chamberlaine as Chamberlaine was wrong about Hitler and Mussolini.
    300 year old feel of self preservation of the Conservative party that’s why Their new PM Theresa May said “Brexit is Brexit.” She wants to make Brexit a success. She’s a healer not a warrior. She wants to deal with it historically by moving on.
    Theresa May realizes that any EU dispute must be thrown in the past.
    -Labor Party Background:
    Leader Jeremy Corbyn. He’s consistent and is old-fashioned, fundamentally democratic socialist. He believes in the redistribution of wealth, civil service and is in it for his constituents not for personal interests.
    Yet his ideology doesn’t work well in the UK (too neo-Marxist.)
    You do not look for British sentiment in Kar Marx’s cemetery–> UK us democratic socialist.
    That’s why the labor party is in a bad place. That type of politics cannot win a general election in UK. In 1993, Conservative party had the worst voter turnout.
    By wanting to remain in the EU, the Labor party divorced themselves from blue-collar workers. They need to get on track with the reality of Brexit (that blue-collar workers wanted to leave EU.)
    -Scotland’s vote to remain is controversial to its independence from Britain (secession.) It is a constitutional issue because they don’t just want an autonomous government because they already got that. They want full constitutional and political separation. They want to stay in the EU but that’s not possible because they’re a part of Great Britain.
    -Long Term Issues:
    In US context, secession has bloody connotation. In UK its independence which is ok in European context (good fences make good neighbors.)
    EU would of course oppose secession the UK if it had stayed in the EU because other EU countries are against the notion of being fed to their people. EU would oppose an independent Scotland from joining the EU.
    -Political Economy and Trade:
    Big companies have had an economic shock after Brexit since UK didn’t choose the option of Norway, Switzerland, WTO etc..
    Element of uncertainty will reduce investment.
    Stock markets is doing fine though.
    Tourism boomed because of exchange rate.
    Banks boosting UK economy (Keynes fiscal boost, monetary system boost, retail is doing fine.)
    Therefore, the economy is doing great for the short-term except for the big companies sector.
    -How is the EU affected?
    British budget contribution every year. Implications: 1.EU will have to cut the budget by the amount of British contribution hence cutting subsidies. 2. Other countries will have to step in and pick up the tab (Germany would most probably pay because that’s how they’ve always cleansed themselves from Nazi Germany days. Germany is also strongest and biggest economy in Europe.)
    -There’s 1 economic and 1 political issue (for the time being):
    If Theresa May is as competent as we hope, she should sign new trade deals. Countries would eventually want to do Brexit style freedom and trade beyond EU’s one-size-fits-all trade policy.
    Other countries might actually ask for a referendum (this isn’t speculative since Hungary and Italy showed discontent with EU.) <--consequence of Brexit. Germany joined EU because people saw them as nationalists and nazi advocates so they had to join. They had to change their currency to euro from deutsch mark. Change in EU members won't affect NATO, though. (Also look into the 5 options for Britain's future trade with the EU. If couldn't find, refer to me.)

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