Case Report “Classic Fixtures and Hardware Company”

    Case Report “Classic Fixtures and Hardware Company”

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    1) The Case “Classic Fixtures and Hardware Company” !
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    1) issues
    2) application of theory
    3) ethical considerations
    4) ability to quantify
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    ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    HBS Professor W. Carl Kester and Senior Instructor Craig Stephenson, Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado, Boulder prepared
    this case solely as a basis for class discussion and not as an endorsement, a source of primary data, or an illustration of effective or ineffective
    management. Although based on real events and despite occasional references to actual companies, this case is fictitious and any resemblance to
    actual persons or entities is coincidental.
    Copyright © 2014 President and Fellows of Harvard College. To order copies or request permission to reproduce materials, call 1-800-545-7685,
    write Harvard Business Publishing, Boston, MA 02163, or go to http://www.hbsp.harvard.edu. This publication may not be digitized,
    photocopied, or otherwise reproduced, posted, or transmitted, without the permission of Harvard Business School.
    W. CARL KESTER
    CRAIG STEPHENSON
    Classic Fixtures & Hardware Company
    ”What’s really happening at Classic Fixtures & Hardware Company?” It was August 6, 2008, and
    Gary Matocha, a senior lending officer at Southwest National Bank, kept rolling this question through
    his mind as he prepared for tomorrow’s meeting with Dan Watkins, the company’s Chief Financial
    Officer. The amounts borrowed under Classic’s seasonal loan facility had been significantly above
    forecast during the last few months, and Mr. Watkins had just informed Mr. Matocha that the company
    would likely be unable to pay off the balance of the loan in the fall of 2008, as both Classic and the bank
    had originally anticipated. This admission that the company would not be “out of the loan” was
    especially troublesome to Matocha, and he had immediately scheduled the meeting with Watkins at
    their headquarters in East Texas. The agenda for tomorrow was straightforward; discuss the company’s
    current financial situation, identify the reasons why Classic would be unable to liquidate the loan
    balance, and develop solutions to remedy Classic’s current financial problems.
    Classic Fixtures & Hardware Company was a successful manufacturer and distributor of a wide
    range of kitchen and bathroom fixtures and trim, as well as lock sets and hardware for doors and
    windows. These products, known for their quality, classic design, and timeliness, were sold to
    individuals and contractors in large home-improvement retailers, smaller hardware and lumber stores,
    and directly to large home builders through a small internal sales force. Home improvement
    expenditures and housing construction were both impacted by the weather in the northern tier of
    states, resulting in more sales for Classic in the spring and summer (approximately 60% of yearly sales),
    and fewer sales in autumn and winter (approximately 40%). The company’s plan for 2008, developed
    and approved by management in late 2007, anticipated moderate increases in housing starts and home
    improvement activity, and Classic ramped up its production and sales efforts to meet this expected
    increase in demand. The company’s forecasted monthly income statements and monthly balance sheets
    presented in Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2, respectively, show detailed information about the year 2008 plan.
    All manufacturing took place in rural East Texas, and Classic produced inventory at a level rate
    through the year to meet forecast demand. Level production minimized the stress on the production
    facilities, and provided steady income for employees, making Classic an important employer in the
    county and region. Sales, however, were highly seasonal, and the mismatch between level production
    9-915-523
    FEBRUARY 5 , 2 0 1 5
    For the exclusive use of S. Alfalasi, 2015.
    This document is authorized for use only by Saif Alfalasi in Case in Finance taught by Manu Gupta, Virginia Commonwealth University from August 2015 to December 2015.
    915-523 | Classic Fixtures & Hardware Company
    2 BRIEFCASES | HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL
    and seasonal sales caused inventory levels and the supporting working capital financing to expand
    and contract with sales and collections of accounts receivable. As a family-owned firm, Classic had
    limited access to the capital markets and therefore depended on its loan facility with Southwest to
    finance its working capital needs. Southwest had been Classic’s lead bank for many years, and the
    company understood the bank believed that working capital financing was by definition short-term
    instead of permanent financing; Southwest strongly preferred short-term borrowings be fully paid off
    at least one month per year. Classic’s seasonal sales and collections pattern resulted in higher inventory
    and working capital loan balances in the first half of the year, and declining inventory and loan balances
    in the second half of the year. This pattern of building inventory levels in the winter and spring, heavy
    sales in the spring and summer, and large collections in the summer and fall had always allowed
    Classic to fully pay down its loan facility during the fourth quarter of the year. That is, until 2008.
    The first sign that Classic’s year 2008 performance wasn’t meeting the plan came in early April.
    Matocha noticed the company’s end of March loan balance was $4 million above forecast, leading to a
    phone call with the CFO to discuss the variance. Watkins attributed the increase to cost overruns in the
    company’s plant expansion and modernization program, which was launched in January, and was
    expected to be completed in early December, with total capital expenditures forecast at $30 million.
    Actual expenditures in the first quarter of 2008 had come in higher than expected, but Mr. Watkins
    explained that program costs in future months were expected to be at or below forecast. The CFO
    expressed confidence that loan balances would quickly return to forecast levels, and Matocha accepted
    this explanation, although he wondered if Classic was actually using short-term bank credit for longerterm
    capital projects, or if other problems were the true cause of the increased borrowings.
    In early June, Matocha had another conversation with Watkins about the continuing variance versus
    plan in amounts borrowed by the company under the loan facility. The CFO stated that sales during
    April and May had been well below forecast, with May’s results nearly 12% below expectations.
    Watkins also explained that sales were down in both the retail and direct-to-builder channels, and the
    decrease in sales and collections had forced the company to increase borrowings until the company
    could adjust operations to match current economic conditions. The maximum funding available to the
    company was $90 million, so Classic was well within the terms of the seasonal loan facility, but
    Matocha was increasingly concerned about the company’s product markets and management’s actions.
    The third, and most alarming phone conversation between the senior loan officer and CFO,
    occurred early on August 6th, when Watkins admitted that even though the loan balance had fallen by
    $8 million during July, he believed that Classic would likely be unable to pay off the balance of the loan
    this year, and before the seasonal upturn in funds requirements in 2009. Collections from customers
    would allow the company to reduce the amount borrowed, but sales had continually failed to meet
    forecast through the summer, so cash receipts would probably not be sufficient to pay off the entire
    amount borrowed. Matocha asked if Classic’s inability to repay the seasonal loan facility this year was
    due to a permanent change in the company’s funding needs, perhaps caused by the expansion and
    modernization program, or if the company’s financial problems were instead the result of significant
    changes in Classic’s product markets. Watkins was not able to answer this question with any certainty,
    and they both agreed to a meeting at Classic’s headquarters to discuss the situation.
    To prepare for the meeting, Matchoa began to analyze the company’s actual monthly income
    statements and monthly balance sheets provided by Mr. Watkins, as presented in Exhibit 3 and Exhibit
    4, respectively. Beyond this information, Matocha also collected the data presented in Exhibit 5, so he
    could better understand conditions in the home improvement and housing construction industries. He
    expected his analysis of Classic’s financial performance would reveal why it would be unable to repay
    its loan balance this year, and hopefully identify actions to correct the company’s financial problems.
    For the exclusive use of S. Alfalasi, 2015.
    This document is authorized for use only by Saif Alfalasi in Case in Finance taught by Manu Gupta, Virginia Commonwealth University from August 2015 to December 2015.
    915-523 -3-
    Exhibit 1 Year 2008 Forecasted Monthly Income Statements
    Actual 2008
    ($ in thousands) 2007 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year
    Net sales 881,424 56,330 62,410 73,160 89,140 92,250 98,110 99,580 91,470 82,490 69,530 53,640 52,890 921,000
    Cost of goods sold 590,106 37,854 41,940 49,164 59,902 61,992 65,930 66,918 61,468 55,433 46,724 36,046 35,541 618,912
    Gross profit 291,318 18,476 20,470 23,996 29,238 30,258 32,180 32,662 30,002 27,057 22,806 17,594 17,349 302,088
    Selling, general & administrative expenses 208,392 17,900 17,900 17,900 17,900 17,900 17,900 17,900 17,900 17,900 17,900 17,900 17,900 214,800
    Operating income 82,926 576 2,570 6,096 11,338 12,358 14,280 14,762 12,102 9,157 4,906 -306 -551 87,288
    Interest expense 8,587 539 621 736 786 784 760 679 571 533 533 533 528 7,603
    Income before income taxes 74,339 37 1,949 5,360 10,552 11,574 13,520 14,083 11,531 8,624 4,373 -839 -1,079 79,685
    Income taxes 26,911 26 703 1,914 3,776 4,144 4,847 5,062 4,158 3,117 1,587 -289 -376 28,669
    Net income 47,428 11 1,246 3,446 6,776 7,430 8,673 9,021 7,373 5,507 2,786 -550 -703 51,016
    Dividends 16,000 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,400 17,600
    Addition to retained earnings 31,428 11 1,246 -954 6,776 7,430 4,273 9,021 7,373 1,107 2,786 -550 -5,103 33,416
    Cumulative addition to retained earnings 11 1,257 303 7,079 14,509 18,782 27,803 35,176 36,283 39,069 38,519 33,416
    For the exclusive use of S. Alfalasi, 2015.
    This document is authorized for use only by Saif Alfalasi in Case in Finance taught by Manu Gupta, Virginia Commonwealth University from August 2015 to December 2015.
    915-523 -4-
    Exhibit 2 Year 2008 Forecasted Monthly Balance Sheets
    Actual 2008
    ($ in thousands) 12-31-2007 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
    Cash 107,067 88,202 86,520 87,030 87,540 88,050 88,570 89,080 89,540 97,373 116,620 127,043 112,400
    Accounts receivable a 104,409 107,830 118,740 135,570 162,300 181,390 190,360 197,690 191,050 173,960 152,050 123,170 106,530
    Inventories 121,670 135,442 145,128 147,590 139,639 129,598 115,619 100,982 91,795 88,643 94,535 111,105 128,180
    Other current assets 19,744 19,774 19,803 19,833 19,864 19,895 19,927 19,957 19,988 20,017 20,041 20,062 20,080
    Current assets 352,890 351,248 370,191 390,023 409,343 418,933 414,476 407,709 392,373 379,993 383,246 381,380 367,190
    Net plant & equipment 165,681 167,335 170,104 171,919 175,264 176,893 178,157 179,472 180,791 181,396 182,648 183,843 184,636
    Total assets 518,571 518,583 540,295 561,942 584,607 595,826 592,633 587,181 573,164 561,389 565,894 565,223 551,826
    Accounts payable b 18,247 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100
    Short-term bank debt c 0 36 19,665 47,313 59,341 58,835 54,450 34,834 9,051 0 0 0 0
    Income taxes payable d 0 26 729 -4,524 -748 3,396 1,076 6,138 10,296 6,245 7,832 7,543 0
    Other current liabilities 27,597 27,683 27,817 28,023 28,108 28,259 28,398 28,479 28,714 28,934 29,066 29,234 29,383
    Current liabilities 45,844 45,845 66,311 88,912 104,801 108,590 102,024 87,551 66,161 53,279 54,998 54,877 47,483
    Long-term debt e 86,250 86,250 86,250 86,250 86,250 86,250 85,350 85,350 85,350 85,350 85,350 85,350 84,450
    Common stock 81,639 81,639 81,639 81,639 81,639 81,639 81,639 81,639 81,639 81,639 81,639 81,639 81,639
    Retained earnings 304,838 304,849 306,095 305,141 311,917 319,347 323,620 332,641 340,014 341,121 343,907 343,357 338,254
    Owners’ equity 386,477 386,488 387,734 386,780 393,556 400,986 405,259 414,280 421,653 422,760 425,546 424,996 419,893
    Total liabilities & owners’ equity 518,571 518,583 540,295 561,942 584,607 595,826 592,633 587,181 573,164 561,389 565,894 565,223 551,826
    a Assumes a 2 month collection period
    b Assumes a 1 month payment period on purchases
    c The interest rate on short-term bank debt is 5%
    d Estimated taxes of $7,167,250 are paid in March, June, September, and December, based on forecasted year 2008 income taxes
    e The interest rate on long-term debt is 7.5%
    For the exclusive use of S. Alfalasi, 2015.
    This document is authorized for use only by Saif Alfalasi in Case in Finance taught by Manu Gupta, Virginia Commonwealth University from August 2015 to December 2015.
    915-523 -5-
    Exhibit 2 (Continued – Forecasted Monthly Inventories)
    2008
    ($ in thousands) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
    Raw materials
    Beginning balance 24,150 24,150 24,150 24,150 24,150 24,150 24,150 24,150 24,150 24,150 24,150 24,150
    + Purchases 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100
    – Transfers to work in progress 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100
    Ending balance 24,150 24,150 24,150 24,150 24,150 24,150 24,150 24,150 24,150 24,150 24,150 24,150
    Work in progress
    Beginning balance 36,103 36,103 36,103 36,103 36,103 36,103 36,103 36,103 36,103 36,103 36,103 36,103
    + Additions from raw materials 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100
    + Direct labor 11,861 11,861 11,861 11,861 11,861 11,861 11,861 11,861 11,861 11,861 11,861 11,861
    + Manufacturing overhead 21,665 21,665 21,665 21,990 21,990 21,990 22,320 22,320 22,320 22,655 22,655 22,655
    – Transfers to finished goods 51,626 51,626 51,626 51,951 51,951 51,951 52,281 52,281 52,281 52,616 52,616 52,616
    Ending balance 36,103 36,103 36,103 36,103 36,103 36,103 36,103 36,103 36,103 36,103 36,103 36,103
    Finished goods
    Beginning balance 61,417 75,189 84,875 87,337 79,386 69,345 55,366 40,729 31,542 28,390 34,282 50,852
    + Additions from work in progress 51,626 51,626 51,626 51,951 51,951 51,951 52,281 52,281 52,281 52,616 52,616 52,616
    – Cost of goods sold 37,854 41,940 49,164 59,902 61,992 65,930 66,918 61,468 55,433 46,724 36,046 35,541
    Ending balance 75,189 84,875 87,337 79,386 69,345 55,366 40,729 31,542 28,390 34,282 50,852 67,927
    Total ending inventories 135,442 145,128 147,590 139,639 129,598 115,619 100,982 91,795 88,643 94,535 111,105 128,180
    For the exclusive use of S. Alfalasi, 2015.
    This document is authorized for use only by Saif Alfalasi in Case in Finance taught by Manu Gupta, Virginia Commonwealth University from August 2015 to December 2015.
    915-523 -6-
    Exhibit 3 Year 2008 Actual Monthly Income Statements
    Actual 2008
    ($ in thousands) 2007 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
    Net sales 881,424 55,496 60,204 68,320 80,507 81,593 84,868 84,760
    Cost of goods sold 590,106 37,260 40,379 45,897 54,149 54,855 57,125 57,017
    Gross profit 291,318 18,236 19,825 22,423 26,358 26,738 27,743 27,743
    Selling, general & administrative expenses 208,392 17,914 17,897 17,922 17,906 17,918 17,873 17,909
    Operating income 82,926 322 1,928 4,501 8,452 8,820 9,870 9,834
    Interest expense 8,587 542 624 751 818 844 867 833
    Income before income taxes 74,339 -220 1,304 3,750 7,634 7,976 9,003 9,001
    Income taxes 26,911 -67 470 1,332 2,721 2,840 3,205 3,209
    Net income 47,428 -153 834 2,418 4,913 5,136 5,798 5,792
    Dividends 16,000 4,400 4,400
    Addition to retained earnings 31,428 -153 834 -1,982 4,913 5,136 1,398 5,792
    Cumulative addition to retained earnings -153 681 -1,301 3,612 8,748 10,146 15,938
    For the exclusive use of S. Alfalasi, 2015.
    This document is authorized for use only by Saif Alfalasi in Case in Finance taught by Manu Gupta, Virginia Commonwealth University from August 2015 to December 2015.
    915-523 -7-
    Exhibit 4 Year 2008 Actual Monthly Balance Sheets
    Actual 2008
    ($ in thousands) 12-31-2007 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
    Cash 107,067 88,246 86,436 86,966 86,525 85,780 81,382 80,663
    Accounts receivable 104,409 107,096 115,763 130,411 152,439 167,907 179,342 184,314
    Inventories 121,670 136,236 147,447 153,627 152,036 149,276 144,051 139,039
    Other current assets 19,744 19,802 19,813 19,827 19,884 19,907 19,924 19,953
    Current assets 352,890 351,380 369,459 390,831 410,884 422,870 424,699 423,969
    Net plant & equipment 165,681 167,974 171,015 173,048 176,898 178,842 180,618 182,028
    Total assets 518,571 519,354 540,474 563,879 587,782 601,712 605,317 605,997
    Accounts payable 18,247 18,486 18,411 18,866 19,112 18,714 18,618 18,410
    Short-term bank debt 0 686 20,446 50,947 66,929 73,098 80,153 71,986
    Income taxes payablea 0 -67 403 -5,432 -2,711 129 -3,834 -625
    Other current liabilities 27,597 27,675 27,806 28,072 28,113 28,296 28,407 28,461
    Current liabilities 45,844 46,780 67,066 92,453 111,443 120,237 123,344 118,232
    Long-term debt 86,250 86,250 86,250 86,250 86,250 86,250 85,350 85,350
    Common stock 81,639 81,639 81,639 81,639 81,639 81,639 81,639 81,639
    Retained earnings 304,838 304,685 305,519 303,537 308,450 313,586 314,984 320,776
    Owners’ equity 386,477 386,324 387,158 385,176 390,089 395,225 396,623 402,415
    Total liabilities & owners’ equity 518,571 519,354 540,474 563,879 587,782 601,712 605,317 605,997
    a Estimated taxes of $7,167,250 are paid in March, June, September, and December, based on forecasted year 2008 income taxes
    For the exclusive use of S. Alfalasi, 2015.
    This document is authorized for use only by Saif Alfalasi in Case in Finance taught by Manu Gupta, Virginia Commonwealth University from August 2015 to December 2015.
    915-523 | Classic Fixtures & Hardware Company
    8 BRIEFCASES | HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL
    Exhibit 4 (Continued – Actual Monthly Inventories)
    2008
    ($ in thousands) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
    Raw materials
    Beginning balance 24,150 24,208 24,246 24,200 24,408 24,516 24,521
    + Purchases 18,267 18,112 18,436 18,579 18,135 17,966 17,683
    – Transfers to work in progress 18,209 18,074 18,482 18,371 18,027 17,961 17,860
    Ending balance 24,208 24,246 24,200 24,408 24,516 24,521 24,344
    Work in progress
    Beginning balance 36,103 36,111 36,040 36,054 36,069 36,080 36,128
    + Additions from raw materials 18,209 18,074 18,482 18,371 18,027 17,961 17,860
    + Direct labor 11,849 11,827 11,902 11,893 11,931 11,830 11,895
    + Manufacturing overhead 21,710 21,651 21,739 22,086 22,029 22,104 22,427
    – Transfers to finished goods 51,760 51,623 52,109 52,335 51,976 51,847 52,137
    Ending balance 36,111 36,040 36,054 36,069 36,080 36,128 36,173
    Finished goods
    Beginning balance 61,417 75,917 87,161 93,373 91,559 88,680 83,402
    + Additions from work in progress 51,760 51,623 52,109 52,335 51,976 51,847 52,137
    – Cost of goods sold 37,260 40,379 45,897 54,149 54,855 57,125 57,017
    Ending balance 75,917 87,161 93,373 91,559 88,680 83,402 78,522
    Total ending inventories 136,236 147,447 153,627 152,036 149,276 144,051 139,039
    For the exclusive use of S. Alfalasi, 2015.
    This document is authorized for use only by Saif Alfalasi in Case in Finance taught by Manu Gupta, Virginia Commonwealth University from August 2015 to December 2015.
    Classic Fixtures & Hardware Company | 915-523
    HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL | BRIEFCASES 9
    Exhibit 5 Reported Information for the Home Improvement and New Construction Industries
    Net sales ($ in millions) Home Depot Lowe’s
    3 months ending April 30, 2008 $17,907 $12,009
    3 months ending January 31, 2008 $14,607 $9,984
    3 months ending October 31, 2007 $18,961 $11,565
    3 months ending July 31, 2007 $22,184 $14,167
    3 months ending April 30, 2007 $18,545 $12,172
    3 months ending January 31, 2007 $17,659 $10,379
    3 months ending October 31, 2006 $23,085 $11,211
    3 months ending July 31, 2006 $26,026 $13,389
    3 months ending April 30, 2006 $21,461 $11,921
    3 months ending January 31, 2006 $20,265 $10,406
    3 months ending October 31, 2006 $20,744 $10,592
    3 months ending July 31, 2006 $22,305 $11,929
    3 months ending April 30, 2006 $18,973 $9,913
    3 months ending January 31, 2006 $19,489 $10,809
    * Sources: Form 10-K filings with the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission
    New privately owned housing units authorized by building permits (not seasonally adjusted)
    Calendar 2Q 2008 294.4
    Calendar 1Q 2008 231.5
    Calendar 4Q 2007 271.1
    Calendar 3Q 2007 349.0
    Calendar 2Q 2007 412.5
    Calendar 1Q 2007 365.6
    Calendar 4Q 2006 358.1
    Calendar 3Q 2006 445.8
    Calendar 2Q 2006 537.2
    Calendar 1Q 2006 497.8
    Calendar 4Q 2005 490.2
    Calendar 3Q 2005 587.2
    Calendar 2Q 2005 598.2
    Calendar 1Q 2005 479.6
    * Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/pdf/bpua.pdf
    For the exclusive use of S. Alfalasi, 2015.
    This document is authorized for use only by Saif Alfalasi in Case in Finance taught by Manu Gupta, Virginia Commonwealth University from August 2015 to December 2015.

    Criteria for Case evaluations
    ability to
    quantify
    excellent acceptable
    issues
    application of
    theory
    ethical
    considerations
    correctly ties the
    problems to financial
    theory in a systematic
    way
    unacceptable
    inability to articulate any
    of the problems facing
    the firm
    able to identify at least
    one of the problems the
    firm faces
    able to clearly state
    several of the problems
    facing the firm and
    identify the most serious
    of these
    unable to tie any of the
    firms problems to
    financial theory
    identifies the possible
    agency (or legal)
    conflicts that have arose
    or might arise based on
    their proposed solutions
    is aware that some
    ethical concerns exist
    and states this
    never considers ethical
    concerns or proposes
    unethical actions as a
    possible solution to the
    firms problems
    can articulate how the
    problem may be
    associated to financial
    theory
    is able to demonstrate
    the financial
    considerations in the
    correct attempts to
    quantify the aspects of
    Never or incorrectly
    attempts to quantify any
    The goal that is to be addressed in the case studies is the following specific goal
    Finance- to think critically and systematically about financial issues in businesses, to
    develop techniques to analyze these issues numerically utilizing some of the latest
    software.
    solutions
    proposes a solution to
    the firm’s problems with
    some insight into the
    possible shortcomings of
    this solutions
    Grading:
    Ten or nine points will be awarded for an “excellent” achieved in each of the six categories. Eight to eight and one
    half points will be awarded for each “acceptable” achieved in each of the six categories. Seven points or less will be
    awarded for unacceptable answers in any category.
    A=54-60 points
    B=48-53.5points
    C=42-47.5 points
    D=41.5points or less
    proposes a reasonable
    solution to the firm’s
    problems
    Never proposes a
    solution to the problems
    of the firm
    case by using
    calculations and models
    and arrives at reasonable
    numerical values
    the case but never arrives
    at a numerical “solution”
    of the issues that are
    addressed in the case
    presentation/
    appearance of
    Case Report
    paper is hard to read–
    many misspellings and
    no references
    paper is neat and easy to
    understand and points
    are made clearly/ no
    misspellings and
    references are properly
    provided
    ideas are expressed –few
    misspellings –some
    references are provided

    Forecasted
    Assumptions    Assumptions    Actual July    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC
    ($ in thousands)
    Net sales    Average Actual Sales/Forecasted    0.86689    84,760    79,295    71,510    60,275    46,500    45,850
    Cost of goods sold    COGS/Sales    0.67269    57,017    53,341    48,104    40,546    31,280    30,843
    Gross profit            27,743    25,954    23,406    19,729    15,220    15,007

    Selling, general & administrative expenses            17,909    17,909    17,909    17,909    17,909    17,909
    Operating income            9,834    8,045    5,497    1,820    -2,689    -2,902

    Interest expense            833    9,497    8,987    8,415    8,123    8,595
    Income before income taxes            9,001    -1,452    -3,490    -6,595    -10,812    -11,497

    Income taxes        0.35677    3,209    -518    -1,245    -2,353    -3,857    -4,102
    Net income            5,792    -934    -2,245    -4,242    -6,955    -7,395

    Dividends    March/June/September/December    4,400    0    0    4,400    0    0    4,400
    Addition to retained earnings            5,792    -934    -6,645    -4,242    -6,955    -11,795
    Cumulative addition to retained earnings

    Short-term Rate    5%
    Long-term Rate    7.50%

    ($ in thousands)
    Excess Cash            0    0    0    0    0    0
    Cash    Assume minimum level of July    80,663    80,663    80,663    80,663    80,663    80,663    80,663
    Accounts receivable a    2 1/6 months        184,314    178,199    164,931    145,001    118,694    102,396
    Inventories    Reduction    0.8    139,039    127,523    121,244    122,791    133,603    144,853
    Other current assets            19,953    19,953    19,953    19,953    19,953    19,953
    Current assets            423,969    406,339    386,792    368,408    352,913    347,865

    Net plant & equipment        2700    182,028    184,728    187,428    190,128    192,828    195,528
    Total assets            605,997    591,067    574,220    558,536    545,741    543,393

    Accounts payable b            17,683    14,480    14,480    14,480    14,480    14,480
    Short-term bank debt c             72,713      61,920      51,717      40,276      34,436      43,883
    Income taxes payable d            -625    -625    -625    -625    -625    -625
    Other current liabilities            28,461    28,461    28,461    28,461    28,461    28,461
    Current liabilities            118,232    104,236    94,033    82,592    76,752    86,199

    Long-term debt e            85,350    85,350    85,350    85,350    85,350    85,350

    Common stock            81,639    81,639    81,639    81,639    81,639    81,639
    Retained earnings            320,776    319,842    313,197    308,955    302,000    290,205
    Owners’ equity            402,415    401,481    394,836    390,594    383,639    371,844

    Total liabilities & owners’ equity            605,997    591,067    574,220    558,536    545,741    543,393

    Trail Asstes            605,997    591,067    574,220    558,536    545,741    543,393
    Trail Libilites             533,284    529,147    522,502    518,260    511,305    499,510
    Plug            72,713    61,920    51,717    40,276    34,436    43,883

    Aug    Sep    Oct    Nov    Dec
    61920    51717    40276    34436    43883
    80%    61920    51717.42497    40275.61834    34435.5282    43883.26797
    79%    61566.47015    50812.33777    38796.8107    32363.93537    41199.19172
    78%    61213.30177    49907.25057    37318.00305    30292.34249    38515.11531
    77%    60860.1334    49002.16337    35839.19539    28220.74961    35831.03891
    76%    60506.96503    48097.07617    34360.38774    26149.15673    33146.9625
    75%    60153.79666    47191.98897    32881.58009    24077.56385    30462.88609
    74%    59800.62828    46286.90177    31402.77243    22005.97097    27778.80969
    73%    59447.45991    45381.81457    29923.96478    19934.37809    25094.73328
    72%    59094.29154    44476.72737    28445.15713    17862.78521    22410.65688
    71%    58741.12317    43571.64017    26966.34947    15791.19233    19726.58047
    70%    58387.9548    42666.55297    25487.54182    13719.59945    17042.50407
    69%    58034.78642    41761.46577    24008.73417    11648.00657    14358.42766
    68%    57681.61805    40856.37857    22529.92651    9576.413691    11674.35126
    67%    57328.44968    39951.29137    21051.11886    7504.820811    8990.27485
    66%    56975.28131    39046.20417    19572.31121    5433.227931    6306.198444
    65%    56622.11293    38141.11697    18093.50356    3361.63505    3622.122039
    64%    56268.94456    37236.02977    16614.6959    1290.04217    938.045633
    63%    55915.7762    36330.94266    15135.88862    0    0
    62%    55562.60783    35425.85546    13657.08097    0    0
    61%    55209.43946    34520.76826    12178.27332    0    0
    60%    54856.27108    33615.68106    10699.46566    0    0

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